Prometeia

Prometeia

1. Who we are
Prometeia is a European provider of economic consulting, quantitative modelling and research-based analysis for enterprises, financial institutions and public bodies. Founded in 1974 in Bologna, it now employs over 1,000 professionals of 30+ nationalities, operating in 20+ countries.
Headquartered in Bologna, with offices in Milan and Rome and branches in Istanbul, Cairo, London, Vienna and Zurich, Prometeia combines expertise in economics, data science, public policy and technology.
The Modelling and Research Division (about 100 economists and data scientists) develops quantitative tools for macroeconomic analysis, scenario design, impact assessment and climate–economy integration. Prometeia works with European institutions, development banks, central banks, major commercial banks, private-sector organizations and Italian national/local authorities.

2. Core competences relevant to Horizon Europe

Climate and environmental economics
• Analysis of GHG emissions, carbon pricing and climate policy.
• Evaluation frameworks for mitigation and adaptation, including resilience metrics.
• Transition and physical-risk analytics for financial institutions and corporates.

Macroeconomic analysis, forecasting and scenarios
• Large-scale modelling supported by a database of 2,000+ indicators.
• Time-series and panel econometrics for policy evaluation and forecasting.
• Regular flagship outlooks demonstrating capacity to deliver complex analytical outputs.

Economic, social and environmental impact assessment
• Cost–benefit analysis, counterfactual impact assessments and policy simulations.
• Use of microdata with macro models to assess distributional impacts, productivity and competitiveness.
• Theory of Change analysis.

Integrated climate–economy modelling (IAM)
Prometeia has developed a proprietary IAM covering transition and physical risks. It couples:
• A multi-country OLG model for intergenerational and fiscal dynamics.
• A CGE module for production, trade and energy use.
• A climate module inspired by FUND with calibrated damage functions.
This structure supports long-horizon scenario analysis (1950–2100) of GDP, emissions, energy, investment, public finance and inequality, and the simulation of mitigation/adaptation policies. A high-resolution spatial damage tool (1 km²) links physical hazards to asset-level impacts.

Industry, supply chains and renewable-fuel value chains
• Industry and Supply Chains Platform mapping European value chains and technological dependencies.
• Commodities and Strategic Inputs Platform monitoring 150+ markets.
• Modelling of advanced biofuels and RFNBOs, integrating value-chain, macro and sustainability analysis.
These tools support CL5, CL6, and relevant parts of CL2, CL3 and CL4.

3. Selected experience relevant to Horizon Europe
• DG REGIO (2025) – Territorial provisions in 2021–27 Cohesion Policy.
• DG MOVE (2024) – Monitoring of Clean Vehicles Directive procurement targets.
• DG COMP (2024) – State of competition in the EU.
• DG GROW (2021) – Regulatory impacts on digital automation.
• Raiffeisen Bank International (2021) – Transition Risk Engine and credit-risk advisory.
• Qatar National Bank (2023) – Macro-climate scenarios.
• SACE (2021) – Carbon footprint and sustainability analysis.
This portfolio shows ability to operate at the interface of policy, finance, industry and climate risk.

4. Added value in Horizon consortia and preferred roles

Socio-economic modelling and scenarios
• Climate–economy scenarios for mitigation, adaptation and nature-positive pathways.
• Multi-region, multi-sector analysis (macro, sectoral, regional, distributional).

Impact assessment and evaluation
• Cost–benefit and cost-effectiveness analysis.
• Counterfactual evaluation for adaptation and resilience measures.

Risk and resilience metrics
• Multi-hazard risk indicators for infrastructure, supply chains, portfolios and territories.
• Stress-testing frameworks for climate security and adaptation finance.

Adaptation and climate finance
• Design of financing structures for local adaptation.
• Alignment with EU Taxonomy, ESG frameworks and disclosure requirements.

Preferred role: Work Package leader for socio-economic modelling, scenarios, risk metrics and impact assessment; or task leader within WPs led by universities, RTOs or public authorities.

5. Technical and organizational capacity
• Proprietary databases and sectoral/regional datasets.
• Software & HPC: EViews, MATLAB, R, Python, GAMS, Fortran; dedicated servers and virtual machines.
• Multidisciplinary teams of economists, statisticians, data scientists and policy experts.
• Collaboration tools (Teams, Zoom) and in-house IT support.
• Established QA and project-management procedures.

6. Contact for Horizon Europe collaborations
• Andrea Camilli, Specialist