Pressure Memory Geology: A New Scientific Paradigm for Seismic Risk Management and Energy Reservoir Exploration

Objective and Core Concept This project introduces a new scientific paradigm called "Pressure Memory Geology" by merging geology and material science. Challenging the dogma that earthquakes are inherently unpredictable, this study is based on the premise that rocks record high-pressure and stress conditions as a molecular "memory." The primary goal is to decode these micro-traces (stress fingerprints) to make earthquake prediction more reliable and increase efficiency in underground energy resource exploration (oil, geothermal, natural gas).

Innovative Aspects & Scientific Framework The project integrates established phenomena such as the Kaiser effect, hysteresis, and acoustic emission into seismic risk mapping.

• Risk Map 2.0: It aims to create a turning point in seismic risk analysis by adding the "memory layer" of rocks to current probabilistic layers.

• Interdisciplinary Approach: Inspired by molecular memory mechanisms, the project investigates similar memory structures in crystal lattices (silica, etc.) under high pressure.

Methodology and Research Design The project follows a multi-scale roadmap (nano → micro → macro) from laboratory environments to field applications:

• Laboratory Validation: Cyclic loading tests on rock samples will be conducted to define micro-structural signatures of pressure memory via SEM (Scanning Electron Microscopy), XRD (X-Ray Diffraction), Nanoindentation, and Acoustic Emission (AE) recordings.

• Field & Data Analysis: Stress maps and micro-crack density from active fault zones will be integrated with geophysical measurements and GPS deformation data.

• AI & GIS Integration: Molecular traces will be processed with machine learning algorithms to be transformed into dynamic, GIS-based risk maps.

Expected Impacts

• Disaster Management: Shifting early warning systems to a level that provides data weeks in advance by determining the amount of stress accumulation and its proximity to the saturation threshold.

• Energy Sector: Reducing drilling costs and increasing energy security by identifying reservoir boundaries and geothermal fluid pathways through pressure history analysis.

• Industrial Applications: Maximizing occupational safety in tunneling and mining by utilizing the fatigue and load memory of materials.