Work Package on Job Creation Potential for HORIZON-CL2-2026-01-TRANSFO-07

The green transition is reshaping labour demand across Europe's key industrial sectors, yet the quality and distribution of emerging employment opportunities remain poorly understood. Germany started with the goal of using the green transition as a growth driver, but all green sectors are fundamentally under pressure. Since these promises of growth have not been fulfilled, the entire green transition is now in jeopardy.

This work package contributes a targeted analysis of green-tech job creation potential with a focus not only on quantity but also on job quality (e.g. wage levels, skill requirements, long-term career prospects), as well as regional distribution of opportunities based on detailed go-to-market analysis.

Besides these deep-dives, we extend the analysis to map the competence profiles of jobs created in these green tech industries and assess the gap relative to current workforce capabilities. Our approach combines sectoral employment projections with firm-level data. A particular focus is on whether the green transition produces a sufficient number of well paid, unsubsidized jobs in different quality levels, and which policy levers can help to realise and extend this potential.

Building on the analytical findings, we can also generate concrete policy recommendations for education and training systems to close identified skills and regional distribution gaps, and derive implications for both Germany and comparable European economies undergoing structural transformation.