AI-Enabled and Nature-Based Solutions for Urban Flood Resilience in Mombasa

Background

Mombasa, Kenya’s second-largest city and a key coastal gateway for East Africa, faces increasingly severe and frequent flooding driven by a combination of intense rainfall, rising sea levels, and rapid urbanization.

According to the Mombasa Flood Risk and Vulnerability Assessment (2024), almost one-third of the city’s land area is highly exposed to flooding, with the most affected wards being Likoni, Mikindani, Tudor, Kadzandani, and Changamwe. Floodwaters regularly disrupt transport, displace residents, damage infrastructure, and pollute coastal and marine ecosystems.

The Mombasa Flood Management Strategy (2025–2030) identifies urban flooding as one of the county’s most pressing climate risks. However, the city’s current drainage and early warning systems remain fragmented, data-poor, and reactive. Large-scale drainage projects are costly and often unsuitable for dense informal settlements. Mombasa therefore seeks scalable, hybrid solutions that combine data-driven prediction, nature-based absorption, and decentralized infrastructure.

Why It Matters

Flooding threatens the sustainability of Mombasa’s economy, infrastructure, and public health — undermining its position as a regional trade, tourism, and blue economy hub.

Without new interventions, climate models project that flood-prone zones in the city could double by 2035, placing an additional 250,000 residents at risk.

The County Government recognizes that traditional hard-engineering alone cannot solve this problem. To transition from reactive crisis response to proactive risk reduction, Mombasa seeks to integrate:

• Artificial Intelligence (AI) and digital tools for predictive early warning, dynamic mapping, and real-time decision support.

• Nature-Based Solutions (NbS) such as restored mangrove buffers, green corridors, and constructed wetlands to naturally retain stormwater.

• Decentralized (“delocalised”) grey systems—like modular retention ponds, permeable pavements, and micro-drainage units—that complement larger infrastructure and work in informal neighborhoods.

Desired Collaborations

The County Government of Mombasa is seeking partnerships to:

• Co-develop AI-driven flood prediction and early warning tools integrating hydrological, meteorological, and community-sourced data.

• Pilot hybrid green-grey flood management prototypes in high-risk wards, guided by local community co-design.

• Design low-cost IoT sensor networks to monitor water levels and drainage system performance.

• Strengthen data integration within the county’s GIS and urban planning systems to enable long-term flood risk monitoring.

• Support capacity building for city engineers, planners, and community responders in climate-smart water management.

Potential partners include: AI and tech startups, universities, research labs, international development partners, and private firms specializing in resilient urban design.