Solar and Atmospheric Risk Forecasting for Resilient High-RES Energy Systems

The Laboratory of Atmospheric Physics, University of Patras, Greece, is interested in joining or co-developing a proposal under CETPartnership Call Module 2026-01, focusing on integrated energy-system resilience in a changing environment.

Our group can contribute expertise in solar resource assessment, solar irradiance and PV power forecasting, atmospheric modelling, ground-based and satellite radiation observations, all-sky imagery, aerosol and cloud impacts on solar radiation, extreme-weather effects on renewable-energy production, and AI-based forecasting methods.

For CM2026-01, our contribution would focus on the role of atmospheric and solar-resource information in strengthening the resilience of energy systems. Solar forecasting can support the anticipation of weather-driven risks, the identification of vulnerable operating conditions, and the development of robust strategies for high-renewable energy systems exposed to cloud variability, heatwaves, dust episodes, smoke events, storms and other environmental stressors.

Indicative activities that our group could undertake include:

1. Development of solar and atmospheric-risk forecasting methods for resilient operation of high-RES energy systems.

2. Assessment of weather-driven impacts on solar-energy production, including cloud variability, extreme irradiance ramps, heatwaves, aerosols, Saharan dust, wildfire smoke and severe weather events.

3. Production of deterministic and probabilistic irradiance and PV power forecasts to support preparedness, operational planning and risk-aware decision-making.

4. Identification and forecasting of critical PV ramp events that may affect grid stability, balancing needs, storage operation and security of supply.

5. Development of resilience-oriented indicators, such as probability of PV underproduction, solar ramp severity, expected forecast-error risk, solar-resource stress periods and weather-related PV vulnerability.

6. Quantification of forecast uncertainty and its propagation into energy-system resilience assessments, contingency planning and operational decision-support tools.

7. Analysis of historical extreme-weather and atmospheric events affecting solar-energy production in Mediterranean conditions.

8. Assessment of climate-related changes in solar-resource availability, variability and extreme-event frequency, using long-term observations, reanalysis and climate data.

9. Validation and benchmarking of forecasting and risk indicators using ground-based measurements, satellite data and pilot-site observations.

10. Integration of solar-risk information into digital twins, decision-support platforms, resilience assessment tools or operational dashboards developed by project partners.

We are interested in collaborating with DSOs, TSOs, aggregators, PV and storage operators, municipalities, civil-protection actors, energy communities, digital-platform developers, climate-risk modellers, universities, research organisations and SMEs working on resilient energy systems.

Our added value is to provide a weather-aware and uncertainty-aware solar-resource intelligence layer that transforms atmospheric observations, satellite/NWP data and AI models into operational information for resilience planning, risk anticipation and robust operation of high-renewable energy systems.