Solar resource, forecasting and atmospheric intelligence for flexible and resilient high-RES energy system

The Laboratory of Atmospheric Physics, University of Patras, Greece, is interested in joining or co-developing a proposal under the CETPartnership Joint Call 2026, especially within topics related to energy-system flexibility, high renewable-energy penetration and resilience under changing environmental conditions.

Our group can contribute expertise in solar resource assessment, short-term solar irradiance and PV power forecasting, all-sky imagery, satellite and ground-based radiation observations, atmospheric modelling, aerosol and cloud impacts on solar radiation, and AI-based forecasting methods.

We can support proposals that aim to improve the operation of high-RES energy systems by transforming atmospheric and solar-resource information into actionable forecasting products. These products can be used for PV integration, storage scheduling, demand-response schemes, flexibility services, local energy communities, digital twins, energy-management platforms and resilient grid operation.

Indicative activities that our group could undertake include:

1. Development of multi-source solar forecasting methods combining ground observations, all-sky imagery, satellite products, numerical weather prediction outputs and AI models.

2. Production of deterministic and probabilistic irradiance and PV power forecasts for different time horizons, from intra-hour nowcasting to day-ahead forecasting.

3. Detection and prediction of rapid solar ramp events caused by cloud variability, with relevance to grid stability, storage dispatch and flexibility needs.

4. Conversion of irradiance forecasts into PV power forecasts using site-specific calibration, PV system metadata and atmospheric information.

5. Quantification of forecast uncertainty and its propagation into storage, balancing, congestion-management and flexibility decisions.

6. Assessment of atmospheric and extreme-weather impacts on solar-energy production, including clouds, aerosols, dust events, smoke episodes and heatwaves.

7. Development of solar-risk indicators for resilient operation of high-renewable energy systems.

8. Validation and benchmarking of forecasting products using ground-based measurements, operational metrics and Mediterranean case studies.

9. Integration of solar forecasting outputs into decision-support tools, digital platforms, digital twins or energy-management systems developed by project partners.

We are interested in collaborating with DSOs, aggregators, PV and storage operators, energy communities, municipalities, SMEs, digital-platform developers, renewable hydrogen actors, universities and research organisations.

Our added value is to provide a weather-aware and uncertainty-aware solar forecasting layer that can help high-RES energy systems operate more flexibly, efficiently and resiliently.