Climate change: fighting or adapting?

The report presents a comprehensive scenario analysis of climate change for the Kyiv region using a 1960–1970 baseline and forecast horizons of 10, 25, 50, and 75 years.

Three scenarios are considered: natural (natural fluctuations), anthropogenic (global impact of human activity) and military/negative (includes local military actions, destruction of infrastructure and increased dustiness). For each scenario, projections are provided for average annual temperature, total precipitation, frequency of extreme events (heat waves, heavy rains, floods, droughts, storms, hail), as well as impacts on biodiversity, hydrology, agriculture, and human health. The pandemic factor (risk of emergence of new pathogens) and its integration into risk assessments are included.

Engineering and applied recommendations on energy and adaptation measures across three time horizons are presented. A regional vulnerability map and sectoral vulnerability assessments based on scenarios have been developed.

A table of "Critical Periods and Risks" and a block of "Financial Consequences and Investment Priorities" with priority projects for risk minimization have been developed.

The probability and mechanisms for achieving critical changes are examined separately, with an assessment of the likelihood of biological extinction of humanity (assessment: extremely unlikely).

All key calculation assumptions and methodology are included.

The materials are presented briefly, and all sections can be expanded based on previously collected materials. This document is intended to serve as a foundation for stress testing critical infrastructure.