Hybrid Mathematical Modelling and Physics-Informed AI for Climate Resilience and Digital Twin Early Warning

About

I offer expertise in statistics, mathematical modelling, probabilistic machine learning, Bayesian and stochastic modelling, uncertainty quantification, spatio-temporal forecasting, physics-informed AI, explainable and trustworthy AI, and digital twins. My work focuses on developing reliable predictive and decision-support methods for climate-sensitive environmental, hydrological and agricultural systems, particularly in data-scarce and semi-arid settings.

A representative application is uncertainty-aware climate and environmental forecasting in Kenya. This work combines meteorological and hydrological time series, Earth-observation and geospatial data, sensor observations, and agricultural indicators with statistical, physical and machine-learning models. The aim is to produce calibrated and interpretable forecasts and early-warning signals for extreme rainfall, floods, droughts, water demand, agricultural risks and compound climate hazards, while assessing robustness and transferability across regions and changing climate conditions.

Collaboration can include:

• developing Bayesian, stochastic, and probabilistic machine-learning methods for spatio-temporal forecasting;

• combining statistical, physical, and machine-learning models for rainfall, floods, droughts, water resources, and agricultural risks;

• advancing uncertainty quantification, calibration, explainability, robustness, and transferability across climates and regions;

• integrating Earth-observation, geospatial, climate, sensor, and socioeconomic data;

• developing digital twins, early-warning systems, and decision-support tools for climate resilience and sustainability;

• joint doctoral supervision, specialist training, research visits, secondments, and Kenyan case-study validation through SEKU.

I am interested in collaborating with MSCA Postdoctoral Fellows, Doctoral Networks and RAISE consortia to develop new probabilistic models and trustworthy AI methods for climate-related processes, environmental prediction, smart agriculture, water systems and sustainable decision support. If interested contact me rmutwiri@seku.ac.ke